Rising temperatures: new records expected in next five years

World Meteorological Organization sounds the alarm on increasing heat

Global temperatures are expected to reach new record highs in the next five years, a troubling forecast driven by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a predicted El Niño event. According to a recent update by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the world should brace for increasingly warmer years.

“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,”

WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

Shattering of previous temperature records

In the five-year period between 2023 and 2027, there’s a 66% likelihood that the global average temperature will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year, and a 98% likelihood that this five-year period will be the warmest on record.

The influences of El Niño and human activities

The impending El Niño, predicted to develop in the coming months, coupled with human-induced climate change, is expected to push global temperatures into new territories, impacting health, food security, water management, and the environment.

A look at the numbers

Despite the high probability of reaching record temperatures, there’s only a 32% chance that the five-year average will surpass the 1.5°C threshold, according to the United Kingdom’s Met Office. Since 2015, the chances of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C have steadily risen, indicating an alarming trend.

The role of the Paris Agreement

In addition to increasing global temperatures, human-induced greenhouse gases are causing increased ocean heating, acidification, sea ice and glacier melt, sea level rise, and more extreme weather. These issues underscore the urgency of fulfilling the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals.

What’s ahead for the World Meteorological Congress

The new report was released ahead of the World Meteorological Congress, which will focus on how to strengthen weather and climate services to support climate change adaptation, including early warning systems for extreme weather and improved greenhouse gas monitoring infrastructure.

Navigating uncharted heat

The future is clear: we are sailing into uncharted waters with rising global temperatures. The world must take this warning seriously and intensify efforts to mitigate climate change. The fate of our planet depends on our collective action and commitment to a sustainable future.


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