Booming demand for electric vehicles, driven by policy and innovation, is set to reshape the auto industry and energy markets
With electric car sales projected to jump 35% this year after a record-breaking 2022, the global auto industry is undergoing a massive transformation. As electric cars become increasingly popular, they are reshaping energy consumption patterns and significantly reduce the demand for oil. This article highlights five key trends in the electric vehicle (EV) market and their implications for the future.
Rapid growth in electric car sales
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that over 10 million electric cars were sold worldwide in 2022, with sales expected to grow by another 35% this year, reaching 14 million. As a result, EVs are expected to make up 18% of the overall car market by the end of 2023. This rapid growth is driven by increased demand and supportive government policies in major markets like China, Europe, and the United States.
Implications for oil demand
The IEA estimates that by 2030, the growing popularity of electric cars will eliminate the need for at least 5 million barrels of oil per day. This dramatic shift in demand is expected to have significant consequences for the global oil industry, and it will likely lead to new market dynamics as countries and businesses adapt to this changing landscape.
“Globally, the projected EV fleet in 2030 displaces more than 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of diesel and gasoline in the Stated Policies Scenario”
IEA – Global EV Outlook 2023
The power players: China, Europe, and the United States
China, Europe, and the United States account for the majority of electric car sales, with China leading the pack at 60% of global sales in 2022. Europe and the United States have also experienced strong growth in EV sales, with ambitious policy programs in place to further increase market share over the next decade.
Batteries and supply chains
The surge in electric vehicle sales has led to an increased demand for batteries and related components, with China dominating the battery and component trade. While other countries are working to build up their domestic industries and become more competitive in the EV market, the current manufacturing landscape remains highly concentrated.
Promising signs in emerging markets
Though electric car sales are largely concentrated in a few major markets, there are encouraging signs of growth in other regions, such as India, Indonesia, and Thailand. With effective policies and private sector investment, these emerging markets could play a significant role in the global shift toward electric mobility.
